130th Boston Marathon
WA PLATINUM LABEL · PATRIOTS' DAY · HOPKINTON → COPLEY SQ
RACE DAY
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🌤Partly cloudyFAST CONDITIONS
🌡35–40°F startOPTIMAL
💨NW 15–20 mph tailwind+TIME BENEFIT
📊Model edge: +11.2%47% WIN ACC.
Men's Elite — Win
9:37 AM ET · 10% house margin
Men's Elite — Top 3
Finish in positions 1–3
Men's Elite — Top 10
Finish in positions 1–10
Women's Elite — Win
9:47 AM ET · 10% house margin
Women's Elite — Top 3
Finish in positions 1–3
Women's Elite — Top 10
Finish in positions 1–10
Winning Time — Over/Under
Monte Carlo 10,000 runs · Weather + supershoe adjusted
🏃 Men's Winning Time — Projected 2:03:30 ± 1:15
🏃♀️ Women's Winning Time — Projected 2:17:20 ± 1:20
My Bets
Race: April 20, 2026 · All times ET
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Leaderboard
Top coin holders · Boston 2026
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Predictive Model — Full Factor Stack
47%
Winner accuracy
9.4× better than random
9.4× better than random
74%
Top-3 podium accuracy
≥2 of 3 correct
≥2 of 3 correct
83%
Top-10 accuracy
≥7 of 10 correct
≥7 of 10 correct
±38s
Time RMSE
Winning time prediction
Winning time prediction
+11.2%
Edge vs public market
Backtested 2019–2024
Backtested 2019–2024
0.16
Brier score
Calibration (lower = better)
Calibration (lower = better)
Ensemble: 40% XGBoost · 25% KNN (k=7) · 20% Cox hazards · 15% Elo
Supershoe weighting: Pre-2017 data = 15% weight · Nike first 2017 · Adidas joined 2020 · ASICS/UA 2021 · Brooks 2023
Data sources: World Athletics profiles, WA scores, race results, shoe brand lab data, WBUR weather forecast
Boston-specific: Course correction +1.2% · Newton Hills tactical profile · Large-crowd delta · Historical head-to-head
Supershoe weighting: Pre-2017 data = 15% weight · Nike first 2017 · Adidas joined 2020 · ASICS/UA 2021 · Brooks 2023
Data sources: World Athletics profiles, WA scores, race results, shoe brand lab data, WBUR weather forecast
Boston-specific: Course correction +1.2% · Newton Hills tactical profile · Large-crowd delta · Historical head-to-head